A major shift is coming to Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). Internal departmental modelling, recently tabled in the Senate, has revealed that 241,000 existing participants are projected to exit the scheme over the next few years as the Albanese government moves to curb ballooning costs.

If you or your loved ones rely on the NDIS, here is a quick breakdown of what these changes mean and where the budget cuts will fall.

The Timeline: Who is Affected and When?

The NDIS currently supports over 760,000 people, with costs projected to hit $117 billion annually within a decade. To contain this growth, the government aims to cap total participants at around 600,000 by the end of the decade.

The new eligibility rules officially take effect on January 1, 2028. Once introduced, the reduction in participants will scale up rapidly:

  • By Mid-2028: 33,000 existing participants will exit.
  • By Mid-2029: 125,000 existing participants will exit.
  • By Mid-2031: A total of 241,000 people will have transitioned off the scheme.

When factoring in both those removed and those denied entry entirely, nearly 350,000 fewer people will be on the NDIS by 2031 compared to original projections.

How Will Eligibility Change?

The fundamental way people qualify for support is shifting from medical diagnosis to functional capacity.

The Key Shift: Under the new system, entry will be determined by a person’s functional capacity, rather than allowing access based on a diagnosis alone. Stricter standardized assessments and provider registration rules will also apply.

Where the Cuts Will Hit Hardest

The overhaul aims to achieve $37.8 billion in savings over four years. The single largest target is the budget for social, civic, and community participation, which faces a $13.2 billion cut.

This funding stream currently allows participants to hire support workers to help them engage with their communities and build independence.

NDIS Planned Savings Targets (Over 4 Years)

  • Community & Social Participation Cuts: $13.2 Billion (Largest Single Cut)
  • Other Reform Efficiencies: $24.6 Billion

Growing Concerns and What Comes Next

The scale of these cuts has sparked intense concern from disability advocates and political figures. Greens disability spokesperson Jordon Steele-John warned that the reforms mean "more reassessments, more bureaucracy, more barriers and constant anxiety" for disabled Australians.

The federal government insists that those leaving the NDIS won’t be left entirely stranded, promising a new network of state-based disability supports for individuals who fall outside the revised criteria. However, the exact details of how these state systems will operate and whether they can match current care standards are still yet to be finalized.

Disclaimer: NDIS eligibility rules and state-based alternative systems are still being finalized. We will update this space as more details emerge.